As of June 21, 2025, Datalogic SpA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $6.50 per share. With the current market price at $4.39, this represents a potential upside of 48.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $5.54 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $6.50 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 26.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 48.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.9% - 16.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $494 million in 12-2024 to $756 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 494 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 533 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 569 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 596 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 621 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 633 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 688 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 702 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 716 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 730 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 756 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 15 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 20 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 27 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 35 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 42 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 49 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 53 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 54 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 55 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 56 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 58 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $30 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 27 |
| 12-2026 | 28 |
| 12-2027 | 30 |
| 12-2028 | 31 |
| 12-2029 | 33 |
| 12-2030 | 35 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 45 |
| Days Inventory | 122 |
| Days Payables | 110 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 41 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 8 |
| 2026 | 64 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 28 |
| 2027 | 74 | 5 | 33 | 4 | 31 |
| 2028 | 84 | 6 | 35 | 4 | 39 |
| 2029 | 93 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 51 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 5.54 | 26.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.50 | 48.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 8.86 | 101.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 8.55 | 94.8% |
Is Datalogic SpA (DAL.MI) a buy or a sell? Datalogic SpA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Datalogic SpA (DAL.MI) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 48.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $4.39.