What is CWEB.TO's DCF valuation?

Charlotte's Web Holdings Inc (CWEB.TO) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, Charlotte's Web Holdings Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.02, this represents a potential upside of -877.3%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -981.5%
Potential Upside (10-year) -877.3%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.8% - 7.5%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $50 million in 12-2024 to $66 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.8%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 50 21%
12-2025 55 11%
12-2026 56 2%
12-2027 57 2%
12-2028 59 2%
12-2029 60 2%
12-2030 61 2%
12-2031 62 2%
12-2032 63 2%
12-2033 65 2%
12-2034 66 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -60% in 12-2024 to -45% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 (30) -60%
12-2025 (32) -57%
12-2026 (31) -54%
12-2027 (30) -52%
12-2028 (29) -49%
12-2029 (28) -47%
12-2030 (28) -47%
12-2031 (29) -46%
12-2032 (29) -46%
12-2033 (29) -45%
12-2034 (30) -45%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $8 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 4
12-2026 4
12-2027 5
12-2028 5
12-2029 6
12-2030 6

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 3
Days Inventory 238
Days Payables 36

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
3M/2025 (7) (0) 1 0 (9)
2026 (28) (0) 5 0 (34)
2027 (26) (0) 6 (1) (30)
2028 (24) (0) 6 (0) (30)
2029 (23) (0) 6 (0) (29)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.8% - 7.5%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 9.7x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -981.5%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -877.3%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(990)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(869)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Charlotte's Web Holdings Inc (CWEB.TO) a buy or a sell? Charlotte's Web Holdings Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Charlotte's Web Holdings Inc (CWEB.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -877.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -60% to -45%)
  • Steady revenue growth (2.8% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.02.