As of June 21, 2025, Curtiss-Wright Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $117.44 to $468.06 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $468.06 | +0.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $387.99 | -16.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $302.02 | -35.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $259.91 | -44.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $117.44 | -74.8% |
Is Curtiss-Wright Corp (CW) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $466.84, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Curtiss-Wright Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.78 | 1.03 |
| Cost of equity | 7.5% | 10.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 23.4% | 23.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.3% | 10.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $388 | $15,355M | 81.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $468 | $18,373M | 66.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $522 | $20,423M | 86.0% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $590 | $22,951M | 73.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $439M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.3% - 7.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,280M - $6,037M |
| Net Debt | $732M |
| Equity Value | $3,547M - $5,305M |
| Outstanding Shares | 38M |
| Fair Value | $94 - $141 |
| Selected Fair Value | $117.44 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $17595M |
| Enterprise Value | $18327M |
| Trailing P/E | 40.94 |
| Forward P/E | 34.18 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 20.95 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 17.64% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 2.93% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.06 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $140.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $97.00 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $60.40 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $38.99 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $11.74 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $348.55 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Curtiss-Wright Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $348.55, which is approximately 25.3% below the current market price of $466.84.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Curtiss-Wright Corp is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.