As of October 26, 2025, Chevron Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $175.50 per share. With the current market price at $155.56, this represents a potential upside of 12.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $164.74 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $175.50 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 5.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 12.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 9.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $193414 million in 12-2024 to $239131 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 193414 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 182136 | -6% |
| 12-2026 | 185779 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 189494 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 203189 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 207253 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 211398 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 221147 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 225570 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 230872 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 239131 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2024 to 15% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 17749 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 20371 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 22403 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 24474 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 27949 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 30214 | 15% |
| 12-2030 | 30818 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 32239 | 15% |
| 12-2032 | 32884 | 15% |
| 12-2033 | 33657 | 15% |
| 12-2034 | 34861 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $12246 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 13102 |
| 12-2026 | 14184 |
| 12-2027 | 14536 |
| 12-2028 | 14316 |
| 12-2029 | 14031 |
| 12-2030 | 14456 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 36 |
| Days Inventory | 25 |
| Days Payables | 59 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 18740 | 3888 | 6601 | (55) | 8306 |
| 2026 | 41294 | 8552 | 13467 | 331 | 18945 |
| 2027 | 44432 | 9342 | 13736 | 386 | 20968 |
| 2028 | 48730 | 10669 | 14729 | 836 | 22497 |
| 2029 | 51490 | 11533 | 15023 | 418 | 24515 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 164.74 | 5.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 175.50 | 12.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 125.87 | -19.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 144.62 | -7.0% |
Is Chevron Corp (CVX) a buy or a sell? Chevron Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Chevron Corp (CVX) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 12.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $155.56.