As of June 8, 2025, Citrix Systems Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.57 to $5.83 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $5.83 | -94.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $4.49 | -95.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $4.10 | -96.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $3.32 | -96.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1.57 | -98.5% |
Is Citrix Systems Inc (CTXS) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $103.90, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Citrix Systems Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Cost of equity | 7.2% | 9.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.1% |
| Tax rate | 15.9% | 24.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.2% | 9.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $2 | $7,178M | 84.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $3 | $9,190M | 70.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $528M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.5% - 7.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $5,564M - $7,352M |
| Net Debt | $2,463M |
| Equity Value | $3,101M - $4,889M |
| Outstanding Shares | 2,539M |
| Fair Value | $1 - $2 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1.57 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $263826M |
| Enterprise Value | $266289M |
| Trailing P/E | 798.60 |
| Forward P/E | 1488.00 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 29.40 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 3.50% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 61.71% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $1.75 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $1.12 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.82 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.50 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.16 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $4.35 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Citrix Systems Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $4.35, which is approximately 95.8% below the current market price of $103.90.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Citrix Systems Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.