What is CTSH's Intrinsic value?

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 12, 2025, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $68.76 to $85.42 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $85.42 +5.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $83.84 +3.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $68.76 -14.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $79.12 -1.9%
Earnings Power Value $81.30 +0.8%

Is Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $80.65, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.63 0.67
Cost of equity 6.8% 8.6%
Cost of debt 4.3% 4.5%
Tax rate 24.2% 24.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.02 0.02
After-tax WACC 6.7% 8.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $19,736 (FY12-2024) to $27,776 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 11% to 11%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $84 $39,946M 76.9%
10-Year Growth $85 $40,725M 58.4%
5-Year EBITDA $77 $36,672M 74.9%
10-Year EBITDA $82 $38,828M 56.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 25.6%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $68.76 (-14.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.6% (Low) to 6.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $44 to $114
  • Selected fair value: $79.12 (-1.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $2,894M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 6.7%
Enterprise Value $34,127M - $43,262M
Net Debt $(1,380)M
Equity Value $35,507M - $44,642M
Outstanding Shares 493M
Fair Value $72 - $91
Selected Fair Value $81.30

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $39756M
Enterprise Value $38376M
Trailing P/E 16.87
Forward P/E 16.63
Trailing EV/EBITDA 10.45
Current Dividend Yield 152.63%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 5.74%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.02

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $25.62
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $20.96
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $13.75
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $11.87
Earnings Power Value 10% $8.13
Weighted Average 100% $80.33

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $80.33, which is approximately 0.4% below the current market price of $80.65.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (11% to 11% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.02)
  • Historical dividend growth of 5.74%

Given these factors, we believe Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.