As of May 27, 2025, Catering International & Services SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $18.89 per share. With the current market price at $10.00, this represents a potential upside of 88.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $18.67 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $18.89 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 86.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 88.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $326 million in 12-2022 to $424 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 326 | 20% |
| 12-2023 | 330 | 1% |
| 12-2024 | 354 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 361 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 368 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 375 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 383 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 395 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 403 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 415 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 424 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2022 to 3% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 10 | 3% |
| 12-2023 | 11 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 11 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 12 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 12 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 12 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 12 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 13 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 13 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 13 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 14 | 3% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 3 |
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 3 |
| 12-2026 | 3 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
| 12-2028 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 69 |
| Days Inventory | 51 |
| Days Payables | 102 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 2024 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 2025 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 2026 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 2027 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 18.67 | 86.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 18.89 | 88.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 17.54 | 75.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 18.41 | 84.1% |
Is Catering International & Services SA (CTRG.PA) a buy or a sell? Catering International & Services SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Catering International & Services SA (CTRG.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 88.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $10.00.