What is CTM.ST's Intrinsic value?

Catena Media PLC (CTM.ST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 17, 2025, Catena Media PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $59.29 to $59.29 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $59.29 +3327.1%

Is Catena Media PLC (CTM.ST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.73, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Catena Media PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.5% 3.0%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.61 0.78
Cost of equity 5.6% 8.3%
Cost of debt 7.0% 12.0%
Tax rate 1.1% 5.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.79 1.79
After-tax WACC 6.5% 10.2%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $34M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.2% - 6.5%
Enterprise Value $327M - $519M
Net Debt $(3)M
Equity Value $330M - $522M
Outstanding Shares 79M
Fair Value $4 - $7
Selected Fair Value $59.29

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $136M
Enterprise Value $103M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.79

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $5.93
Weighted Average 100% $59.29

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Catena Media PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $59.29, which is approximately 3327.1% above the current market price of $1.73.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-97% to -91% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Catena Media PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.