What is CSVI's Intrinsic value?

Computer Services Inc (CSVI) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 6, 2025, Computer Services Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $18.89 to $125.80 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $45.52 -21.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $39.75 -31.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $18.89 -67.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $19.40 -66.3%
Earnings Power Value $125.80 +118.4%

Is Computer Services Inc (CSVI) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $57.60, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Computer Services Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.2% 5.2%
Adjusted beta 1.32 1.53
Cost of equity 8.8% 12.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 22.1% 23.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.9% 7.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $317 (FY02-2022) to $472 (FY02-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 20% to 20%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $40 $1,027M 74.2%
10-Year Growth $46 $1,188M 57.0%
5-Year EBITDA $38 $1,052M 74.8%
10-Year EBITDA $43 $1,204M 57.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 14.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $18.89 (-67.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.2% (Low) to 8.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $13 to $26
  • Selected fair value: $19.40 (-66.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $231M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.8% - 5.9%
Enterprise Value $2,947M - $3,886M
Net Debt $(76)M
Equity Value $3,023M - $3,962M
Outstanding Shares 28M
Fair Value $109 - $143
Selected Fair Value $125.80

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1599M
Enterprise Value $1599M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 24.45
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.75
Current Dividend Yield 186.30%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 15.79%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.90

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $13.65
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $9.94
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $3.78
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $2.91
Earnings Power Value 10% $12.58
Weighted Average 100% $42.86

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Computer Services Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $42.86, which is approximately 25.6% below the current market price of $57.60.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (20% to 20% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 15.79%

Given these factors, we believe Computer Services Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.