What is CSU.TO's DCF valuation?

Constellation Software Inc (CSU.TO) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, Constellation Software Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of 25.0%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -9.2%
Potential Upside (10-year) 25.0%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.4% - 8.7%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $11623 million in 12-2025 to $29220 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.7%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 11623 15%
12-2026 12220 5%
12-2027 14333 17%
12-2028 16812 17%
12-2029 19317 15%
12-2030 21689 12%
12-2031 23010 6%
12-2032 24850 8%
12-2033 26503 7%
12-2034 27828 5%
12-2035 29220 5%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2025 to 5% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 586 5%
12-2026 623 5%
12-2027 739 5%
12-2028 876 5%
12-2029 1016 5%
12-2030 1151 5%
12-2031 1223 5%
12-2032 1323 5%
12-2033 1413 5%
12-2034 1486 5%
12-2035 1563 5%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $49 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 58
12-2027 67
12-2028 78
12-2029 87
12-2030 99
12-2031 112

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 61
Days Inventory 118
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 1637 375 72 136 1054
2027 1931 445 84 335 1067
2028 2279 527 99 426 1227
2029 2632 612 113 434 1473
2030 2973 693 127 393 1759

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.4% - 8.7%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 13.0x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -9.2%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 25.0%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 1773.21 +Inf%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 2254.74 +Inf%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $35,926M
  • 10-Year Model: $48,596M

Investment Conclusion

Is Constellation Software Inc (CSU.TO) a buy or a sell? Constellation Software Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Constellation Software Inc (CSU.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 25.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (9.7% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.