What is CSP.L's Intrinsic value?

Countryside Properties PLC (CSP.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Countryside Properties PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $224.96 to $777.65 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $394.47 +71.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $777.65 +238.4%
Earnings Power Value $224.96 -2.1%

Is Countryside Properties PLC (CSP.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $229.80, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Countryside Properties PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.75 0.79
Cost of equity 8.5% 10.5%
Cost of debt 4.7% 4.7%
Tax rate 17.2% 17.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.07 0.07
After-tax WACC 8.2% 10.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,371 (FY09-2021) to $5,598 (FY09-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 5% to 12%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $(1,234) $(1,214)M 56.1%
10-Year Growth $394 $1,987M 100.6%
5-Year EBITDA $288 $1,469M 136.3%
10-Year EBITDA $478 $2,394M 100.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $777.65 (238.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.5% (Low) to 8.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(207) to $(536)
  • Selected fair value: $-371.61 (-261.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $105M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.1% - 8.2%
Enterprise Value $1,038M - $1,280M
Net Debt $60M
Equity Value $978M - $1,220M
Outstanding Shares 5M
Fair Value $200 - $250
Selected Fair Value $224.96

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1122M
Enterprise Value $1183M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 9.62
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.60
Current Dividend Yield 364.99%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.07

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 50% $118.34
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 33% $155.53
Earnings Power Value 17% $22.50
Weighted Average 100% $493.95

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Countryside Properties PLC's intrinsic value is $493.95, which is approximately 114.9% above the current market price of $229.80.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (5% to 12% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.07)

Given these factors, we believe Countryside Properties PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.