As of June 12, 2025, Chartwell Retirement Residences's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.73 to $29.53 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $29.53 | +64.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $19.98 | +11.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $10.76 | -40.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $5.59 | -68.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $0.73 | -96.0% |
Is Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $17.96, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Chartwell Retirement Residences's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.76 | 0.89 |
| Cost of equity | 7.0% | 9.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 8.4% |
| Tax rate | 24.0% | 34.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.8% | 8.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $20 | $8,345M | 87.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $30 | $11,029M | 78.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $11 | $5,784M | 82.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $18 | $7,826M | 69.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $201M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.2% - 5.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,445M - $3,432M |
| Net Debt | $2,734M |
| Equity Value | $(289)M - $697M |
| Outstanding Shares | 281M |
| Fair Value | $(1) - $2 |
| Selected Fair Value | $0.73 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $5044M |
| Enterprise Value | $7778M |
| Trailing P/E | 87.64 |
| Forward P/E | 73.54 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 11.45 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 234.26% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -1.51% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.51 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $8.86 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $4.99 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $2.15 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.84 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.07 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $16.92 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Chartwell Retirement Residences's weighted average intrinsic value is $16.92, which is approximately 5.8% below the current market price of $17.96.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Chartwell Retirement Residences is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.