What is CS.PA's Intrinsic value?

AXA SA (CS.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of October 19, 2025, AXA SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $35.37 to $43.09 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $43.09 +9.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $35.37 -10.2%

Is AXA SA (CS.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $39.41, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate AXA SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.94 1.01
Cost of equity 8.4% 10.9%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 20.1% 22.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.3 0.3
After-tax WACC 7.4% 9.3%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 60.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $43.09 (9.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.9% (Low) to 8.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $24 to $47
  • Selected fair value: $35.37 (-10.2% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $85451M
Enterprise Value $92540M
Trailing P/E 10.97
Forward P/E 10.24
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 547.94%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 26.44%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.30

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $8.62
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $5.31
Weighted Average 100% $39.78

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, AXA SA's intrinsic value is $39.78, which is approximately 0.9% above the current market price of $39.41.

Key investment considerations:

  • Historical dividend growth of 26.44%

Given these factors, we believe AXA SA is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.