As of May 22, 2025, CrowdStrike Holdings Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $434.74, this represents a potential upside of -110.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -110.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -110.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3954 million in 01-2025 to $23222 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 3954 | 29% |
| 01-2026 | 4169 | 5% |
| 01-2027 | 5522 | 32% |
| 01-2028 | 7388 | 34% |
| 01-2029 | 9113 | 23% |
| 01-2030 | 10980 | 20% |
| 01-2031 | 13180 | 20% |
| 01-2032 | 15452 | 17% |
| 01-2033 | 18224 | 18% |
| 01-2034 | 20582 | 13% |
| 01-2035 | 23222 | 13% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 01-2025 to 6% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | (17) | 0% |
| 01-2026 | 81 | 2% |
| 01-2027 | 156 | 3% |
| 01-2028 | 270 | 4% |
| 01-2029 | 405 | 4% |
| 01-2030 | 571 | 5% |
| 01-2031 | 704 | 5% |
| 01-2032 | 848 | 5% |
| 01-2033 | 1025 | 6% |
| 01-2034 | 1187 | 6% |
| 01-2035 | 1371 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $203 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 9% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 264 |
| 01-2027 | 334 |
| 01-2028 | 411 |
| 01-2029 | 525 |
| 01-2030 | 656 |
| 01-2031 | 815 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 103 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 30 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 192 | 29 | 368 | 94 | (299) |
| 2027 | 305 | 55 | 487 | 361 | (598) |
| 2028 | 456 | 96 | 651 | 480 | (772) |
| 2029 | 677 | 144 | 804 | 474 | (744) |
| 2030 | 952 | 203 | 968 | 501 | (721) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -110.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -110.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 25.29 | -94.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 38.12 | -91.2% |
Is CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) a buy or a sell? CrowdStrike Holdings Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -110.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $434.74.