What is CRSR's Intrinsic value?

Corsair Gaming Inc (CRSR) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Corsair Gaming Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.30 to $3.06 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $2.40 -70.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1.30 -84.2%
Earnings Power Value $3.06 -62.9%

Is Corsair Gaming Inc (CRSR) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $8.23, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Corsair Gaming Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.16 1.39
Cost of equity 9.2% 12.7%
Cost of debt 5.2% 7.0%
Tax rate 15.4% 23.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.2 0.2
After-tax WACC 8.4% 11.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,316 (FY12-2024) to $2,556 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -6% to 2%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $(1,234) $12M 482.7%
10-Year Growth $2 $303M 80.8%
5-Year EBITDA $1 $117M 140.8%
10-Year EBITDA $2 $262M 77.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $1.30 (-84.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.7% (Low) to 9.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(5) to $(13)
  • Selected fair value: $-9.38 (-213.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $36M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.4% - 8.4%
Enterprise Value $315M - $429M
Net Debt $49M
Equity Value $266M - $381M
Outstanding Shares 106M
Fair Value $3 - $4
Selected Fair Value $3.06

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $871M
Enterprise Value $920M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.10
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.20

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 50% $0.72
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 33% $0.26
Earnings Power Value 17% $0.31
Weighted Average 100% $2.14

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Corsair Gaming Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.14, which is approximately 74.0% below the current market price of $8.23.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-6% to 2% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.20)

Given these factors, we believe Corsair Gaming Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.