As of May 25, 2025, Ceres Global Ag Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.29 to $90.24 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $90.24 | +1394.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $53.05 | +778.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $56.76 | +839.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $2.29 | -62.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $5.73 | -5.1% |
Is Ceres Global Ag Corp (CRP.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $6.04, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ceres Global Ag Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.37 | 0.64 |
| Cost of equity | 5.1% | 8.1% |
| Cost of debt | 7.0% | 14.9% |
| Tax rate | 25.9% | 26.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.1% | 8.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $39 | $1,275M | 83.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $66 | $2,118M | 70.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $26 | $895M | 76.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $45 | $1,469M | 57.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $13M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.9% - 5.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $146M - $257M |
| Net Debt | $72M |
| Equity Value | $75M - $185M |
| Outstanding Shares | 31M |
| Fair Value | $2 - $6 |
| Selected Fair Value | $5.73 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $188M |
| Enterprise Value | $287M |
| Trailing P/E | 70.60 |
| Forward P/E | 8.06 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.85 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.42 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $27.07 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $13.26 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $11.35 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.34 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.57 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $52.60 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ceres Global Ag Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $52.60, which is approximately 770.9% above the current market price of $6.04.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Ceres Global Ag Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.