As of May 25, 2025, Ceres Global Ag Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $90.24 per share. With the current market price at $6.04, this represents a potential upside of 1394.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $53.05 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $90.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 778.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 1394.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $920 million in 06-2024 to $1932 million by 06-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 920 | 11% |
| 06-2025 | 784 | -15% |
| 06-2026 | 923 | 18% |
| 06-2027 | 1062 | 15% |
| 06-2028 | 1233 | 16% |
| 06-2029 | 1430 | 16% |
| 06-2030 | 1522 | 6% |
| 06-2031 | 1647 | 8% |
| 06-2032 | 1752 | 6% |
| 06-2033 | 1839 | 5% |
| 06-2034 | 1932 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 06-2024 to 8% by 06-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 8 | 1% |
| 06-2025 | 17 | 2% |
| 06-2026 | 33 | 4% |
| 06-2027 | 52 | 5% |
| 06-2028 | 77 | 6% |
| 06-2029 | 108 | 8% |
| 06-2030 | 115 | 8% |
| 06-2031 | 124 | 8% |
| 06-2032 | 132 | 8% |
| 06-2033 | 139 | 8% |
| 06-2034 | 146 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $3 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 4 |
| 06-2026 | 3 |
| 06-2027 | 3 |
| 06-2028 | 4 |
| 06-2029 | 5 |
| 06-2030 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 20 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 16 | 3 | 2 | (5) | 16 |
| 2026 | 52 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 2027 | 80 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 44 |
| 2028 | 115 | 28 | 5 | 14 | 68 |
| 2029 | 159 | 39 | 6 | 14 | 100 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 53.05 | 778.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 90.24 | 1394.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 36.32 | 501.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 61.61 | 920.0% |
Is Ceres Global Ag Corp (CRP.TO) a buy or a sell? Ceres Global Ag Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Ceres Global Ag Corp (CRP.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 1394.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $6.04.