As of May 23, 2025, Creightons PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $92.53 per share. With the current market price at $38.00, this represents a potential upside of 143.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $44.51 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $92.53 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 17.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 143.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $53 million in 03-2024 to $67 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 53 | 9% |
| 03-2025 | 52 | -2% |
| 03-2026 | 53 | 2% |
| 03-2027 | 54 | 2% |
| 03-2028 | 57 | 4% |
| 03-2029 | 58 | 2% |
| 03-2030 | 60 | 4% |
| 03-2031 | 62 | 2% |
| 03-2032 | 63 | 2% |
| 03-2033 | 65 | 4% |
| 03-2034 | 67 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -7% in 03-2024 to 8% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | (4) | -7% |
| 03-2025 | (2) | -3% |
| 03-2026 | (0) | -1% |
| 03-2027 | 1 | 2% |
| 03-2028 | 2 | 4% |
| 03-2029 | 3 | 6% |
| 03-2030 | 4 | 6% |
| 03-2031 | 4 | 7% |
| 03-2032 | 5 | 7% |
| 03-2033 | 5 | 8% |
| 03-2034 | 5 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 1 |
| 03-2026 | 2 |
| 03-2027 | 2 |
| 03-2028 | 2 |
| 03-2029 | 2 |
| 03-2030 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 74 |
| Days Inventory | 113 |
| Days Payables | 63 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | (0) | (0) | 1 | 1 | (1) |
| 2026 | 2 | (0) | 2 | (0) | (0) |
| 2027 | 3 | 0 | 2 | (0) | 1 |
| 2028 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2029 | 6 | 0 | 2 | (0) | 4 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 44.51 | 17.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 92.53 | 143.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 51.99 | 36.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 83.57 | 119.9% |
Is Creightons PLC (CRL.L) a buy or a sell? Creightons PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Creightons PLC (CRL.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 143.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $38.00.