As of June 17, 2025, Cricut Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.36 to $5.79 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $5.79 | -12.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $5.34 | -18.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $4.31 | -34.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $3.36 | -48.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $5.54 | -15.9% |
Is Cricut Inc (CRCT) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $6.59, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Cricut Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.9 | 0.92 |
| Cost of equity | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 26.6% | 27.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.8% | 6.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $5 | $879M | 79.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $6 | $975M | 62.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $5 | $782M | 76.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $5 | $879M | 58.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $58M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 5.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $850M - $993M |
| Net Debt | $(252)M |
| Equity Value | $1,102M - $1,245M |
| Outstanding Shares | 212M |
| Fair Value | $5 - $6 |
| Selected Fair Value | $5.54 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1396M |
| Enterprise Value | $1143M |
| Trailing P/E | 20.80 |
| Forward P/E | 21.82 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.75 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 990.05% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.86 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $1.74 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $1.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.86 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.50 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.55 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $4.99 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Cricut Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $4.99, which is approximately 24.2% below the current market price of $6.59.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Cricut Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.