As of June 8, 2025, Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $44.41 per share. With the current market price at $25.87, this represents a potential upside of 71.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $39.88 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $44.41 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 54.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 71.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $492 million in 12-2024 to $862 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 492 | 23% |
| 12-2025 | 530 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 564 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 607 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 639 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 662 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 698 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 733 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 765 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 812 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 862 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 33% in 12-2024 to 33% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 164 | 33% |
| 12-2025 | 176 | 33% |
| 12-2026 | 187 | 33% |
| 12-2027 | 202 | 33% |
| 12-2028 | 212 | 33% |
| 12-2029 | 220 | 33% |
| 12-2030 | 232 | 33% |
| 12-2031 | 244 | 33% |
| 12-2032 | 254 | 33% |
| 12-2033 | 270 | 33% |
| 12-2034 | 287 | 33% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 1 |
| 12-2030 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 38 |
| Days Inventory | 95 |
| Days Payables | 78 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 175 | 43 | 1 | (7) | 139 |
| 2026 | 248 | 61 | 1 | 14 | 173 |
| 2027 | 268 | 65 | 1 | 4 | 197 |
| 2028 | 282 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 211 |
| 2029 | 292 | 71 | 1 | 5 | 215 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 39.88 | 54.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 44.41 | 71.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 35.13 | 35.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 40.06 | 54.9% |
Is Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPRX) a buy or a sell? Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPRX) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 71.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $25.87.