As of May 25, 2025, CorePoint Lodging Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $15.98, this represents a potential upside of -333.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -409.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -333.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 8.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $411 million in 12-2020 to $624 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 411 | 49% |
| 12-2021 | 488 | 19% |
| 12-2022 | 487 | 0% |
| 12-2023 | 519 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 547 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 558 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 569 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 580 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 593 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 611 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 624 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -43% in 12-2020 to -24% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (178) | -43% |
| 12-2021 | (185) | -38% |
| 12-2022 | (170) | -35% |
| 12-2023 | (166) | -32% |
| 12-2024 | (160) | -29% |
| 12-2025 | (148) | -27% |
| 12-2026 | (148) | -26% |
| 12-2027 | (148) | -25% |
| 12-2028 | (148) | -25% |
| 12-2029 | (150) | -25% |
| 12-2030 | (150) | -24% |
with a 5-year average of $125 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 111 |
| 12-2022 | 83 |
| 12-2023 | 66 |
| 12-2024 | 68 |
| 12-2025 | 80 |
| 12-2026 | 82 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2021 | (10) | (5) | 19 | 1 | (26) |
| 2022 | (54) | (17) | 75 | (0) | (111) |
| 2023 | (63) | (17) | 80 | 0 | (126) |
| 2024 | (51) | (16) | 84 | 2 | (120) |
| 2025 | (25) | (15) | 86 | 0 | (96) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -409.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -333.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is CorePoint Lodging Inc (CPLG) a buy or a sell? CorePoint Lodging Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, CorePoint Lodging Inc (CPLG) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -333.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $15.98.