As of June 21, 2025, Crescent Point Energy Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $8.35 to $31.85 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $18.17 | +139.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $25.76 | +239.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $11.72 | +54.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $8.35 | +10.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $31.85 | +320.1% |
Is Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $7.58, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Crescent Point Energy Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 | 1.09 |
| Cost of equity | 8.7% | 10.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.6% | 8.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $26 | $19,677M | 68.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $18 | $14,971M | 41.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $13 | $11,727M | 46.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $14 | $12,159M | 27.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,736M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 6.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $20,698M - $26,199M |
| Net Debt | $3,705M |
| Equity Value | $16,993M - $22,494M |
| Outstanding Shares | 620M |
| Fair Value | $27 - $36 |
| Selected Fair Value | $31.85 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4699M |
| Enterprise Value | $8405M |
| Trailing P/E | 8.24 |
| Forward P/E | 5.70 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 327.40% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 76.17% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.57 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $5.45 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $6.44 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $2.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.25 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $3.18 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $18.67 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Crescent Point Energy Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $18.67, which is approximately 146.3% above the current market price of $7.58.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Crescent Point Energy Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.