As of June 17, 2025, Coursera Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $8.26, this represents a potential upside of -202.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -215.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -202.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $695 million in 12-2024 to $1894 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 695 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 738 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 777 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 847 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 968 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 1128 | 16% |
| 12-2030 | 1277 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 1428 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 1589 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 1726 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 1894 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -11% in 12-2024 to 1% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (80) | -11% |
| 12-2025 | (65) | -9% |
| 12-2026 | (51) | -7% |
| 12-2027 | (39) | -5% |
| 12-2028 | (25) | -3% |
| 12-2029 | (9) | -1% |
| 12-2030 | (5) | 0% |
| 12-2031 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2032 | 5 | 0% |
| 12-2033 | 11 | 1% |
| 12-2034 | 18 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $20 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 23 |
| 12-2026 | 26 |
| 12-2027 | 30 |
| 12-2028 | 33 |
| 12-2029 | 34 |
| 12-2030 | 38 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 36 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 121 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (62) | (1) | 21 | 5 | (87) |
| 2026 | (67) | (1) | 30 | 4 | (100) |
| 2027 | (55) | (1) | 32 | 1 | (87) |
| 2028 | (44) | (1) | 37 | 3 | (84) |
| 2029 | (34) | (0) | 43 | 2 | (80) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -215.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -202.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.68 | -91.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Coursera Inc (COUR) a buy or a sell? Coursera Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Coursera Inc (COUR) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -202.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $8.26.