What is COUR.PA's Intrinsic value?

Courtois SA (COUR.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Courtois SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $9.01 to $92.32 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $84.45 -27.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $92.32 -20.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $9.01 -92.2%
Earnings Power Value $23.39 -79.8%

Is Courtois SA (COUR.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $116.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Courtois SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.35 0.37
Cost of equity 5.0% 6.5%
Cost of debt 7.0% 22.4%
Tax rate 21.1% 22.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.26 0.26
After-tax WACC 5.1% 8.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1 (FY12-2023) to $2 (FY12-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -14% to 8%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $92 $2M 2.2%
10-Year Growth $84 $1M 37.0%
5-Year EBITDA $99 $2M 22.3%
10-Year EBITDA $101 $2M 31.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 5.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $9.01 (-92.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 6.5% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(63) to $(359)
  • Selected fair value: $-211.22 (-282.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $(0)M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.8% - 5.1%
Enterprise Value $(2)M - $(4)M
Net Debt $(5)M
Equity Value $2M - $1M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $35 - $12
Selected Fair Value $23.39

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $8M
Enterprise Value $3M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.85
Current Dividend Yield 237.09%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 24.44%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.26

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $25.33
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $23.08
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $1.80
Earnings Power Value 12% $2.34
Weighted Average 100% $61.83

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Courtois SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $61.83, which is approximately 46.7% below the current market price of $116.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-14% to 8% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.26)
  • Historical dividend growth of 24.44%

Given these factors, we believe Courtois SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.