As of June 2, 2025, Costco Wholesale Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of 59.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 27.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 59.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $254453 million in 09-2024 to $449163 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 254453 | 5% |
| 09-2025 | 266748 | 5% |
| 09-2026 | 280842 | 5% |
| 09-2027 | 295957 | 5% |
| 09-2028 | 320099 | 8% |
| 09-2029 | 345581 | 8% |
| 09-2030 | 354936 | 3% |
| 09-2031 | 372683 | 5% |
| 09-2032 | 380137 | 2% |
| 09-2033 | 417117 | 10% |
| 09-2034 | 449163 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 09-2024 to 9% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 7367 | 3% |
| 09-2025 | 11248 | 4% |
| 09-2026 | 15480 | 6% |
| 09-2027 | 20070 | 7% |
| 09-2028 | 25690 | 8% |
| 09-2029 | 31948 | 9% |
| 09-2030 | 32813 | 9% |
| 09-2031 | 34454 | 9% |
| 09-2032 | 35143 | 9% |
| 09-2033 | 38562 | 9% |
| 09-2034 | 41524 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $3864 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 4248 |
| 09-2026 | 4527 |
| 09-2027 | 4798 |
| 09-2028 | 5069 |
| 09-2029 | 5352 |
| 09-2030 | 5665 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 31 |
| Days Payables | 32 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7M/2025 | 10915 | 2114 | 2759 | 105 | 5937 |
| 2026 | 24565 | 4988 | 4980 | (74) | 14670 |
| 2027 | 30883 | 6468 | 5248 | 240 | 18927 |
| 2028 | 38546 | 8278 | 5676 | 194 | 24398 |
| 2029 | 47066 | 10295 | 6128 | 178 | 30465 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 27.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 59.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 634.75 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 906.86 | +Inf% |
Is Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) a buy or a sell? Costco Wholesale Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 59.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.