As of October 26, 2025, ConocoPhillips has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $128.76 per share. With the current market price at $88.03, this represents a potential upside of 46.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $137.74 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $128.76 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 56.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 46.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 8.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $54745 million in 12-2024 to $74552 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 54745 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 57856 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 59013 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 60653 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 62429 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 63678 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 64951 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 66250 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 70015 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 71415 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 74552 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 17% in 12-2024 to 17% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 9245 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 9720 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 9914 | 17% |
| 12-2027 | 10190 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 10488 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 10698 | 17% |
| 12-2030 | 10912 | 17% |
| 12-2031 | 11130 | 17% |
| 12-2032 | 11763 | 17% |
| 12-2033 | 11998 | 17% |
| 12-2034 | 12525 | 17% |
with a 5-year average of $8713 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 18% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 9895 |
| 12-2026 | 10998 |
| 12-2027 | 11194 |
| 12-2028 | 11238 |
| 12-2029 | 11153 |
| 12-2030 | 11414 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 38 |
| Days Inventory | 17 |
| Days Payables | 65 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 11446 | 2365 | 5313 | (232) | 4000 |
| 2026 | 24255 | 4824 | 10838 | 189 | 8403 |
| 2027 | 24819 | 4958 | 11140 | 170 | 8552 |
| 2028 | 25262 | 5103 | 11466 | (58) | 8751 |
| 2029 | 25458 | 5205 | 11695 | 94 | 8463 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 137.74 | 56.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 128.76 | 46.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 79.78 | -9.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 90.38 | 2.7% |
Is ConocoPhillips (COP) a buy or a sell? ConocoPhillips is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, ConocoPhillips (COP) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 46.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $88.03.