As of June 13, 2025, ContextVision AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $7.37 per share. With the current market price at $4.88, this represents a potential upside of 51.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $7.05 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $7.37 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 44.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 51.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $131 million in 12-2024 to $151 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 131 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 99 | -24% |
| 12-2026 | 103 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 110 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 116 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 119 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 124 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 128 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 132 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 143 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 151 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 19% in 12-2024 to 19% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 25 | 19% |
| 12-2025 | 19 | 19% |
| 12-2026 | 20 | 19% |
| 12-2027 | 21 | 19% |
| 12-2028 | 22 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 23 | 19% |
| 12-2030 | 24 | 19% |
| 12-2031 | 24 | 19% |
| 12-2032 | 25 | 19% |
| 12-2033 | 27 | 19% |
| 12-2034 | 29 | 19% |
with a 5-year average of $6 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 5 |
| 12-2026 | 5 |
| 12-2027 | 5 |
| 12-2028 | 5 |
| 12-2029 | 6 |
| 12-2030 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 72 |
| Days Inventory | 8 |
| Days Payables | (182) |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 2026 | 28 | 5 | 5 | (4) | 22 |
| 2027 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 |
| 2028 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 2029 | 33 | 6 | 6 | (1) | 21 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.05 | 44.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.37 | 51.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.56 | -6.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.15 | 5.5% |
Is ContextVision AB (CONTX.OL) a buy or a sell? ContextVision AB is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, ContextVision AB (CONTX.OL) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 51.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $4.88.