Comptoir Group PLC (COM.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Comptoir Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.12 to $28.54 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method	Fair Value (USD)	Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y)	$17.88	+476.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y)	$3.12	+0.7%
Earnings Power Value	$28.54	+820.6%

Is Comptoir Group PLC (COM.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $3.10, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Comptoir Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component	Low	High
Long-term bond rate	4.0%	4.5%
Equity market risk premium	6.0%	7.0%
Adjusted beta	0.51	0.81
Cost of equity	7.0%	10.6%
Cost of debt	4.0%	7.0%
Tax rate	5.8%	15.9%
Debt/Equity ratio	4.98	4.98
After-tax WACC	4.3%	6.7%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

• Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
• Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
• Discount Rate: 5.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

• Revenue growth from $31 (FY12-2023) to $45 (FY12-2033)
• Net profit margin expansion from -5% to 0%
• Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue

DCF Model	Fair Value	Enterprise Value	% from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth	$3	$21M	94.2%
10-Year Growth	$18	$39M	86.0%
5-Year EBITDA	$(1,234)	$13M	90.8%
10-Year EBITDA	$2	$20M	72.4%

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component	Value
Normalized Earnings	$3M
Discount Rate (WACC)	6.7% - 4.3%
Enterprise Value	$41M - $63M
Net Debt	$17M
Equity Value	$24M - $46M
Outstanding Shares	1M
Fair Value	$19 - $38
Selected Fair Value	$28.54

Key Financial Metrics

Metric	Value
Market Capitalization	$4M
Enterprise Value	$20M
Trailing P/E	0.00
Forward P/E	0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA	9.55
Current Dividend Yield	0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y)	0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio	4.98

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method	Weight	Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y)	46%	$5.36
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y)	38%	$0.78
Earnings Power Value	15%	$2.85
Weighted Average	100%	$13.84

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Comptoir Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $13.84, which is approximately 346.6% above the current market price of $3.10.

Key investment considerations:

• Strong projected earnings growth (-5% to 0% margin)

Given these factors, we believe Comptoir Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.