What is COLL.ST's Intrinsic value?

Collector AB (COLL.ST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 31, 2025, Collector AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $70.46 to $72.16 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $72.16 +102.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $70.46 +97.6%

Is Collector AB (COLL.ST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $35.65, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Collector AB's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.8% 3.3%
Equity market risk premium 5.5% 6.5%
Adjusted beta 0.63 0.71
Cost of equity 6.3% 8.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 21.1% 21.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.46 0.46
After-tax WACC 5.5% 7.0%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $72.16 (102.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.5% (Low) to 6.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $46 to $95
  • Selected fair value: $70.46 (97.6% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $7322M
Enterprise Value $10076M
Trailing P/E 6.42
Forward P/E 6.11
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.46

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $14.43
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $10.57
Weighted Average 100% $71.43

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Collector AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $71.43, which is approximately 100.4% above the current market price of $35.65.

Key investment considerations:

  • Overall financial health and market position

Given these factors, we believe Collector AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.