As of May 31, 2025, Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $37.50, this represents a potential upside of -869.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -672.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -869.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $14 million in 12-2023 to $43 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 14 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 14 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 16 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 18 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 21 | 18% |
| 12-2028 | 24 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 27 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 31 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 35 | 14% |
| 12-2032 | 39 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 43 | 11% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -26% in 12-2023 to -14% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (4) | -26% |
| 12-2024 | (2) | -17% |
| 12-2025 | (3) | -16% |
| 12-2026 | (3) | -15% |
| 12-2027 | (3) | -15% |
| 12-2028 | (3) | -14% |
| 12-2029 | (4) | -14% |
| 12-2030 | (4) | -14% |
| 12-2031 | (5) | -14% |
| 12-2032 | (5) | -14% |
| 12-2033 | (6) | -14% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 46 |
| Days Inventory | 11 |
| Days Payables | 92 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (2) | (1) | 0 | (0) | (1) |
| 2025 | (3) | (1) | 0 | 1 | (3) |
| 2026 | (4) | (1) | 0 | 0 | (3) |
| 2027 | (4) | (2) | 0 | 0 | (3) |
| 2028 | (5) | (2) | 0 | 0 | (4) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -672.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -869.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC (COG.L) a buy or a sell? Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC (COG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -869.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $37.50.