What is CNV.PA's Intrinsic value?

Cnova NV (CNV.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Cnova NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $7.53 to $7.53 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $7.53 +7978.8%

Is Cnova NV (CNV.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.09, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Cnova NV's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 7.82 13.08
Cost of equity 48.5% 93.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 9.1%
Tax rate 7.8% 13.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 24.7 24.7
After-tax WACC 5.4% 11.2%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $249M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.2% - 5.4%
Enterprise Value $2,223M - $4,590M
Net Debt $807M
Equity Value $1,416M - $3,782M
Outstanding Shares 345M
Fair Value $4 - $11
Selected Fair Value $7.53

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $32M
Enterprise Value $839M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 3.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 24.70

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.75
Weighted Average 100% $7.53

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Cnova NV's weighted average intrinsic value is $7.53, which is approximately 7978.8% above the current market price of $0.09.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-9% to -2% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Cnova NV is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.