As of May 23, 2025, Cnova NV has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.09, this represents a potential upside of -1966.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2554.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1966.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.4% - 11.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1039 million in 12-2024 to $1394 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1039 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 1086 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 1131 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 1157 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1217 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 1241 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1266 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1300 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 1326 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1366 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 1394 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -9% in 12-2024 to -2% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (93) | -9% |
| 12-2025 | (72) | -7% |
| 12-2026 | (62) | -5% |
| 12-2027 | (50) | -4% |
| 12-2028 | (39) | -3% |
| 12-2029 | (27) | -2% |
| 12-2030 | (27) | -2% |
| 12-2031 | (28) | -2% |
| 12-2032 | (29) | -2% |
| 12-2033 | (30) | -2% |
| 12-2034 | (30) | -2% |
with a 5-year average of $76 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 70 |
| 12-2026 | 61 |
| 12-2027 | 56 |
| 12-2028 | 55 |
| 12-2029 | 55 |
| 12-2030 | 57 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 25 |
| Days Inventory | 46 |
| Days Payables | 111 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29 | (8) | 51 | (36) | 22 |
| 2026 | 33 | (7) | 54 | 16 | (30) |
| 2027 | 41 | (6) | 55 | 4 | (11) |
| 2028 | 54 | (5) | 58 | (6) | 7 |
| 2029 | 70 | (3) | 59 | 6 | 8 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2554.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1966.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Cnova NV (CNV.PA) a buy or a sell? Cnova NV is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Cnova NV (CNV.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1966.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.09.