As of June 7, 2025, Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s estimated intrinsic value ranges from $19.35 to $214.03 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $133.29 | +98.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $104.77 | +56.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $84.83 | +26.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $19.35 | -71.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $214.03 | +219.0% |
Is Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $67.09, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| Cost of equity | 8.8% | 11.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.8% | 8.6% |
| Tax rate | 14.8% | 16.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.5% | 11.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $105 | $5,496M | 66.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $133 | $6,997M | 47.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $137 | $7,199M | 74.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $164 | $8,609M | 57.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,089M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 11.2% - 8.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $9,698M - $12,801M |
| Net Debt | $(21)M |
| Equity Value | $9,720M - $12,822M |
| Outstanding Shares | 53M |
| Fair Value | $185 - $243 |
| Selected Fair Value | $214.03 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3533M |
| Enterprise Value | $3512M |
| Trailing P/E | 30.66 |
| Forward P/E | 7.17 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 73.52% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.06 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $39.99 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $26.19 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $16.97 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $2.90 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $21.40 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $107.45 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s weighted average intrinsic value is $107.45, which is approximately 60.2% above the current market price of $67.09.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Core Natural Resources, Inc. is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.