As of May 23, 2025, CentralNic Group Plc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $48.61 to $245.24 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $149.18 | +24.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $115.91 | -3.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $48.61 | -59.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $245.24 | +104.7% |
Is CentralNic Group Plc (CNIC.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $119.80, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate CentralNic Group Plc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.4% | 7.4% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.46 | 0.75 |
| Cost of equity | 7.4% | 11.0% |
| Cost of debt | 6.0% | 6.4% |
| Tax rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.7% | 9.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $142 | $438M | 78.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $183 | $542M | 62.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $99 | $328M | 71.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $132 | $412M | 50.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $65M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.3% - 6.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $703M - $984M |
| Net Debt | $74M |
| Equity Value | $630M - $910M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $246 - $355 |
| Selected Fair Value | $245.24 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $307M |
| Enterprise Value | $363M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 30.39 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.45 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 85.66% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.42 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $44.75 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $28.98 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $9.72 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $24.52 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $127.03 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, CentralNic Group Plc's weighted average intrinsic value is $127.03, which is approximately 6.0% above the current market price of $119.80.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe CentralNic Group Plc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.