As of May 27, 2025, CentralNic Group Plc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $149.18 per share. With the current market price at $119.80, this represents a potential upside of 24.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $115.91 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $149.18 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -3.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 24.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $728 million in 12-2022 to $1305 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 728 | 77% |
| 12-2023 | 814 | 12% |
| 12-2024 | 875 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 919 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 987 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 1058 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 1124 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 1165 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 1188 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1243 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 1305 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2022 to 2% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (2) | 0% |
| 12-2023 | 13 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 14 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 15 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 16 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 17 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 19 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 19 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 20 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 20 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 22 | 2% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 5 |
| 12-2024 | 7 |
| 12-2025 | 9 |
| 12-2026 | 11 |
| 12-2027 | 12 |
| 12-2028 | 13 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 47 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 41 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 1 |
| 2024 | 45 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 27 |
| 2025 | 49 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 31 |
| 2026 | 53 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| 2027 | 58 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 33 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 115.91 | -3.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 149.18 | 24.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 73.19 | -38.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 97.55 | -18.6% |
Is CentralNic Group Plc (CNIC.L) a buy or a sell? CentralNic Group Plc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, CentralNic Group Plc (CNIC.L) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 24.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $119.80.