As of May 22, 2025, Cairn Energy PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $211.50, this represents a potential upside of -55874.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -138134.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -55874.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $178 million in 12-2024 to $241 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 178 | 30% |
| 12-2025 | 188 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 196 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 203 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 209 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 213 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 218 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 222 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 231 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 236 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 241 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -7% in 12-2024 to 21% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (13) | -7% |
| 12-2025 | 17 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 23 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 29 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 34 | 16% |
| 12-2029 | 40 | 19% |
| 12-2030 | 42 | 19% |
| 12-2031 | 43 | 20% |
| 12-2032 | 46 | 20% |
| 12-2033 | 48 | 20% |
| 12-2034 | 50 | 21% |
with a 5-year average of $143 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 20086% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 7606 |
| 12-2026 | 15478 |
| 12-2027 | 23612 |
| 12-2028 | 31999 |
| 12-2029 | 40558 |
| 12-2030 | 41753 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 133 |
| Days Inventory | 18 |
| Days Payables | 88 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7640 | 5 | 37716 | 36 | (30,117) |
| 2026 | 15521 | 6 | 39453 | 4 | (23,942) |
| 2027 | 23663 | 8 | 40787 | (12) | (17,121) |
| 2028 | 32057 | 10 | 41996 | 12 | (9,960) |
| 2029 | 40624 | 11 | 42836 | 0 | (2,223) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -138134.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -55874.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Cairn Energy PLC (CNE.L) a buy or a sell? Cairn Energy PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Cairn Energy PLC (CNE.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -55874.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $211.50.