As of June 2, 2025, Centene Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $56.44, this represents a potential upside of 0.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 0.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 0.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | - |
Revenue is projected to grow from $111115 million in 12-2020 to $393001 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 111115 | 49% |
| 12-2021 | 128014 | 15% |
| 12-2022 | 158579 | 24% |
| 12-2023 | 188821 | 19% |
| 12-2024 | 220824 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 258057 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 283907 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 313872 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 341510 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 367291 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 393001 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 12-2020 to 2% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 2403 | 2% |
| 12-2021 | 2431 | 2% |
| 12-2022 | 3011 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 3586 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 4194 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 4901 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 5391 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 5961 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 6485 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 6975 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 7463 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $600 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 770 |
| 12-2022 | 972 |
| 12-2023 | 1177 |
| 12-2024 | 1429 |
| 12-2025 | 1721 |
| 12-2026 | 2002 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 31 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2021 | 4129 | 1099 | 866 | 941 | 1223 |
| 2022 | 6837 | 1815 | 1430 | 2608 | 984 |
| 2023 | 8161 | 2161 | 1703 | 2699 | 1598 |
| 2024 | 9597 | 2528 | 1991 | 2670 | 2408 |
| 2025 | 11266 | 2954 | 2327 | 3206 | 2779 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 107.92 | 91.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 167.85 | 197.4% |
Is Centene Corp (CNC) a buy or a sell? Centene Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Centene Corp (CNC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 0.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $56.44.