As of May 24, 2025, Celestica Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $264.88 per share. With the current market price at $164.09, this represents a potential upside of 61.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $163.27 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $264.88 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -0.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 61.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 10.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $9646 million in 12-2024 to $23419 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 9646 | 21% |
| 12-2025 | 11092 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 12876 | 16% |
| 12-2027 | 14283 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 15609 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 18108 | 16% |
| 12-2030 | 19150 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 20231 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 21242 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 22304 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 23419 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2024 to 11% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 428 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 619 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 891 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 1175 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 1484 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 1950 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 2062 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 2179 | 11% |
| 12-2032 | 2287 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 2402 | 11% |
| 12-2034 | 2522 | 11% |
with a 5-year average of $102 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 121 |
| 12-2026 | 145 |
| 12-2027 | 162 |
| 12-2028 | 178 |
| 12-2029 | 193 |
| 12-2030 | 214 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 77 |
| Days Inventory | 104 |
| Days Payables | 67 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 711 | 143 | 111 | 588 | (132) |
| 2026 | 1331 | 275 | 172 | 457 | 426 |
| 2027 | 1722 | 363 | 191 | 258 | 909 |
| 2028 | 2146 | 459 | 209 | 468 | 1010 |
| 2029 | 2773 | 602 | 242 | 661 | 1267 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 163.27 | -0.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 264.88 | 61.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 179.62 | 9.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 243.08 | 48.1% |
Is Celestica Inc (CLS.TO) a buy or a sell? Celestica Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Celestica Inc (CLS.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 61.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $164.09.