As of May 27, 2025, Continental Resources Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $102.67 per share. With the current market price at $74.27, this represents a potential upside of 38.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $73.46 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $102.67 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 38.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $5848 million in 12-2021 to $10582 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 5848 | 125% |
| 12-2022 | 4894 | -16% |
| 12-2023 | 4648 | -5% |
| 12-2024 | 5596 | 20% |
| 12-2025 | 6523 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 7290 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 8044 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 8607 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 9243 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 9890 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 10582 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 28% in 12-2021 to 30% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1666 | 28% |
| 12-2022 | 1410 | 29% |
| 12-2023 | 1351 | 29% |
| 12-2024 | 1641 | 29% |
| 12-2025 | 1928 | 30% |
| 12-2026 | 2172 | 30% |
| 12-2027 | 2399 | 30% |
| 12-2028 | 2571 | 30% |
| 12-2029 | 2765 | 30% |
| 12-2030 | 2962 | 30% |
| 12-2031 | 3174 | 30% |
with a 5-year average of $2848 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 66% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 3108 |
| 12-2023 | 3142 |
| 12-2024 | 3313 |
| 12-2025 | 3877 |
| 12-2026 | 3846 |
| 12-2027 | 4265 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 69 |
| Days Inventory | 106 |
| Days Payables | 571 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2022 | 1291 | 109 | 813 | (38) | 407 |
| 2023 | 5113 | 419 | 3088 | 47 | 1559 |
| 2024 | 5704 | 509 | 3717 | 115 | 1362 |
| 2025 | 6684 | 598 | 4333 | 123 | 1630 |
| 2026 | 7005 | 674 | 4843 | 133 | 1355 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 73.46 | -1.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 102.67 | 38.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 95.21 | 28.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 119.35 | 60.7% |
Is Continental Resources Inc (CLR) a buy or a sell? Continental Resources Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Continental Resources Inc (CLR) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 38.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $74.27.