As of June 18, 2025, Clover Health Investments Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $2.83, this represents a potential upside of -214.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -215.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -214.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.6% - 6.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1371 million in 12-2024 to $1882 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1371 | 33% |
| 12-2025 | 1457 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 1486 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 1530 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 1578 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 1610 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1711 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 1773 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 1809 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1845 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 1882 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -3% in 12-2024 to -2% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (46) | -3% |
| 12-2025 | (36) | -2% |
| 12-2026 | (37) | -2% |
| 12-2027 | (38) | -2% |
| 12-2028 | (39) | -2% |
| 12-2029 | (40) | -2% |
| 12-2030 | (42) | -2% |
| 12-2031 | (44) | -2% |
| 12-2032 | (45) | -2% |
| 12-2033 | (45) | -2% |
| 12-2034 | (46) | -2% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 1 |
| 12-2030 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (35) | (10) | 1 | 0 | (26) |
| 2026 | (48) | (14) | 1 | 0 | (35) |
| 2027 | (50) | (14) | 1 | 0 | (37) |
| 2028 | (51) | (14) | 1 | 0 | (38) |
| 2029 | (52) | (15) | 1 | 0 | (39) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -215.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -214.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Clover Health Investments Corp (CLOV) a buy or a sell? Clover Health Investments Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Clover Health Investments Corp (CLOV) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -214.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.83.