What is CLIQ.TO's Intrinsic value?

Alcanna Inc (CLIQ.TO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Alcanna Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $7.09 to $42.71 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $42.71 +371.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $20.11 +122.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $16.66 +84.1%
Earnings Power Value $7.09 -21.7%

Is Alcanna Inc (CLIQ.TO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $9.05, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Alcanna Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.4% 3.9%
Equity market risk premium 4.7% 5.7%
Adjusted beta 0.33 0.39
Cost of equity 4.9% 6.6%
Cost of debt 4.0% 12.8%
Tax rate 20.6% 29.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.72 0.72
After-tax WACC 4.2% 7.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $726 (FY12-2021) to $2,168 (FY12-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -4% to 3%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $20 $921M 90.7%
10-Year Growth $43 $1,740M 79.1%
5-Year EBITDA $13 $669M 87.2%
10-Year EBITDA $26 $1,151M 68.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 5.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $16.66 (84.1% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 6.6% (Low) to 4.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(10) to $(36)
  • Selected fair value: $-22.84 (-352.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $24M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.6% - 4.2%
Enterprise Value $319M - $580M
Net Debt $193M
Equity Value $127M - $387M
Outstanding Shares 36M
Fair Value $3 - $11
Selected Fair Value $7.09

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $328M
Enterprise Value $521M
Trailing P/E 8.50
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.70
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.72

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $12.81
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $5.03
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $3.33
Earnings Power Value 12% $0.71
Weighted Average 100% $25.74

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Alcanna Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $25.74, which is approximately 184.5% above the current market price of $9.05.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-4% to 3% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Alcanna Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.