As of June 6, 2025, Clinigen Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $529.40 to $924.84 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $924.84 | -0.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $559.41 | -39.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $529.40 | -42.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $682.93 | -26.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $566.29 | -38.8% |
Is Clinigen Group PLC (CLIN.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $925.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Clinigen Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.3% | 6.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| Cost of equity | 8.7% | 11.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 32.7% | 46.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.1% | 9.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $559 | $1,040M | 78.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $925 | $1,527M | 64.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1,074 | $1,725M | 87.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1,348 | $2,091M | 73.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $83M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% - 7.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $932M - $1,168M |
| Net Debt | $296M |
| Equity Value | $636M - $872M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $478 - $655 |
| Selected Fair Value | $566.29 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1232M |
| Enterprise Value | $1527M |
| Trailing P/E | 17.80 |
| Forward P/E | 29.68 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 105.55% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 19.82% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.34 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $277.45 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $139.85 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $105.88 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $102.44 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $56.63 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $682.25 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Clinigen Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $682.25, which is approximately 26.2% below the current market price of $925.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Clinigen Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.