As of June 6, 2025, Clinigen Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $924.84 per share. With the current market price at $925.00, this represents a potential upside of -0.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $559.41 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $924.84 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -39.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -0.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $524 million in 06-2021 to $1279 million by 06-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2021 | 524 | 12% |
| 06-2022 | 609 | 16% |
| 06-2023 | 672 | 10% |
| 06-2024 | 768 | 14% |
| 06-2025 | 865 | 13% |
| 06-2026 | 953 | 10% |
| 06-2027 | 1037 | 9% |
| 06-2028 | 1095 | 6% |
| 06-2029 | 1160 | 6% |
| 06-2030 | 1218 | 5% |
| 06-2031 | 1279 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 8% in 06-2021 to 10% by 06-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2021 | 40 | 8% |
| 06-2022 | 41 | 7% |
| 06-2023 | 51 | 8% |
| 06-2024 | 64 | 8% |
| 06-2025 | 78 | 9% |
| 06-2026 | 93 | 10% |
| 06-2027 | 101 | 10% |
| 06-2028 | 106 | 10% |
| 06-2029 | 113 | 10% |
| 06-2030 | 118 | 10% |
| 06-2031 | 124 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $18 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2022 | 22 |
| 06-2023 | 25 |
| 06-2024 | 27 |
| 06-2025 | 30 |
| 06-2026 | 32 |
| 06-2027 | 35 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 73 |
| Days Inventory | 57 |
| Days Payables | 87 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | 49 | 13 | 13 | (7) | 30 |
| 2023 | 118 | 32 | 28 | 25 | 33 |
| 2024 | 143 | 40 | 32 | 19 | 52 |
| 2025 | 170 | 49 | 36 | 10 | 75 |
| 2026 | 198 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 79 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 559.41 | -39.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 924.84 | -0.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1073.64 | 16.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1348.06 | 45.7% |
Is Clinigen Group PLC (CLIN.L) a buy or a sell? Clinigen Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Clinigen Group PLC (CLIN.L) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -0.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $925.00.