As of May 23, 2025, Cineworld Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $394.52 per share. With the current market price at $0.38, this represents a potential upside of 103447.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $394.52 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -29140.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 103447.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.5% - 13.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1805 million in 12-2021 to $14019 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1805 | 112% |
| 12-2022 | 3790 | 110% |
| 12-2023 | 4127 | 9% |
| 12-2024 | 5321 | 29% |
| 12-2025 | 6594 | 24% |
| 12-2026 | 7978 | 21% |
| 12-2027 | 9310 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 10519 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 11772 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 12990 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 14019 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -31% in 12-2021 to -17% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (566) | -31% |
| 12-2022 | (1,131) | -30% |
| 12-2023 | (1,117) | -27% |
| 12-2024 | (1,300) | -24% |
| 12-2025 | (1,446) | -22% |
| 12-2026 | (1,560) | -20% |
| 12-2027 | (1,778) | -19% |
| 12-2028 | (1,962) | -19% |
| 12-2029 | (2,143) | -18% |
| 12-2030 | (2,308) | -18% |
| 12-2031 | (2,430) | -17% |
with a 5-year average of $241 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 14% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 319 |
| 12-2023 | 402 |
| 12-2024 | 457 |
| 12-2025 | 582 |
| 12-2026 | 772 |
| 12-2027 | 925 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 6 |
| Days Payables | 39 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | 148 | (112) | 263 | (53) | 50 |
| 2023 | 513 | (221) | 573 | (55) | 216 |
| 2024 | 769 | (257) | 738 | 82 | 206 |
| 2025 | 1166 | (286) | 915 | (55) | 591 |
| 2026 | 1706 | (308) | 1107 | (9) | 916 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -29140.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 394.52 | 103447.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 174.91 | 45929.3% |
Is Cineworld Group PLC (CINE.L) a buy or a sell? Cineworld Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Cineworld Group PLC (CINE.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 103447.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.38.