Cinedigm Corp (CIDM) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of September 18, 2025, Cinedigm Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.17 to $0.26 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method	Fair Value (USD)	Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y)	$0.26	-10.1%
Earnings Power Value	$0.17	-42.8%

Is Cinedigm Corp (CIDM) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.29, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Cinedigm Corp's intrinsic value, including:

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component	Low	High
Long-term bond rate	4.2%	4.7%
Equity market risk premium	5.0%	6.0%
Adjusted beta	0.56	0.98
Cost of equity	7.0%	11.1%
Cost of debt	7.0%	7.0%
Tax rate	1.1%	11.6%
Debt/Equity ratio	0.09	0.09
After-tax WACC	7.0%	10.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

• Forecast Period: 10-year DCF
• Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
• Discount Rate: 8.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

• Revenue growth from $68 (FY03-2023) to $116 (FY03-2033)
• Net profit margin expansion from -14% to 0%
• Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue

DCF Model	Fair Value	Enterprise Value	% from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth	$(1,234)	$(41)M	90.5%
10-Year Growth	$0	$40M	87.8%
5-Year EBITDA	$0	$0M	4290.2%
10-Year EBITDA	$0	$14M	63.7%

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component	Value
Normalized Earnings	$2M
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.6% - 7.0%
Enterprise Value	$18M - $28M
Net Debt	$(7)M
Equity Value	$25M - $35M
Outstanding Shares	179M
Fair Value	$0 - $0
Selected Fair Value	$0.17

Key Financial Metrics

Metric	Value
Market Capitalization	$53M
Enterprise Value	$46M
Trailing P/E	0.00
Forward P/E	0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA	3.00
Current Dividend Yield	0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y)	0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio	0.09

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method	Weight	Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y)	75%	$0.08
Earnings Power Value	25%	$0.02
Weighted Average	100%	$0.24

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Cinedigm Corp's intrinsic value is $0.24, which is approximately 18.3% below the current market price of $0.29.

Key investment considerations:

• Strong projected earnings growth (-14% to 0% margin)
• Consistent cash flow generation
• Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.09)

Given these factors, we believe Cinedigm Corp is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.