As of May 31, 2025, Chr Hansen Holding A/S has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $452.63 per share. With the current market price at $553.00, this represents a potential upside of -18.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $377.07 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $452.63 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -31.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -18.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 7.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1334 million in 08-2023 to $2452 million by 08-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2023 | 1334 | 10% |
| 08-2024 | 1419 | 6% |
| 08-2025 | 1515 | 7% |
| 08-2026 | 1546 | 2% |
| 08-2027 | 1729 | 12% |
| 08-2028 | 1798 | 4% |
| 08-2029 | 1905 | 6% |
| 08-2030 | 2064 | 8% |
| 08-2031 | 2187 | 6% |
| 08-2032 | 2328 | 6% |
| 08-2033 | 2452 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 17% in 08-2023 to 17% by 08-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2023 | 227 | 17% |
| 08-2024 | 245 | 17% |
| 08-2025 | 261 | 17% |
| 08-2026 | 266 | 17% |
| 08-2027 | 298 | 17% |
| 08-2028 | 310 | 17% |
| 08-2029 | 328 | 17% |
| 08-2030 | 356 | 17% |
| 08-2031 | 377 | 17% |
| 08-2032 | 401 | 17% |
| 08-2033 | 423 | 17% |
with a 5-year average of $138 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 13% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 08-2024 | 147 |
| 08-2025 | 161 |
| 08-2026 | 169 |
| 08-2027 | 185 |
| 08-2028 | 203 |
| 08-2029 | 216 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 58 |
| Days Inventory | 114 |
| Days Payables | 87 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 505 | 72 | 180 | (16) | 269 |
| 2025 | 544 | 76 | 192 | 28 | 247 |
| 2026 | 560 | 78 | 196 | 12 | 273 |
| 2027 | 621 | 87 | 219 | 29 | 286 |
| 2028 | 657 | 91 | 228 | 17 | 321 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 377.07 | -31.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 452.63 | -18.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 343.74 | -37.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 415.44 | -24.9% |
Is Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR.CO) a buy or a sell? Chr Hansen Holding A/S is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Chr Hansen Holding A/S (CHR.CO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -18.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $553.00.