As of May 22, 2025, Churchill China PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $532.68 to $3994.83 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $973.59 | +77.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $906.03 | +64.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $591.78 | +7.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $532.68 | -3.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $3994.83 | +626.3% |
Is Churchill China PLC (CHH.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $550.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Churchill China PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.75 | 0.85 |
| Cost of equity | 8.5% | 10.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| Tax rate | 24.9% | 26.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.5% | 10.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $906 | $90M | 47.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $974 | $98M | 33.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $931 | $93M | 49.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $982 | $98M | 33.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $41M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.9% - 8.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $376M - $484M |
| Net Debt | $(10)M |
| Equity Value | $385M - $494M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $3,502 - $4,488 |
| Selected Fair Value | $3994.83 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $60M |
| Enterprise Value | $51M |
| Trailing P/E | 9.50 |
| Forward P/E | 9.22 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 663.60% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 3.60% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $292.08 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $226.51 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $118.36 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $79.90 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $399.48 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1116.33 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Churchill China PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1116.33, which is approximately 103.0% above the current market price of $550.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Churchill China PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.