As of June 18, 2025, Churchill China PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $747.47 to $3390.77 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $767.63 | +21.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $747.47 | +18.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $781.69 | +24.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $957.13 | +51.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $3390.77 | +438.2% |
Is Churchill China PLC (CHH.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $630.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Churchill China PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.35 | 0.68 |
| Cost of equity | 6.1% | 9.7% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| Tax rate | 24.9% | 26.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 9.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $747 | $83M | 77.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $768 | $86M | 58.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $622 | $68M | 71.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $677 | $75M | 51.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $31M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.7% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $316M - $508M |
| Net Debt | $(10)M |
| Equity Value | $326M - $517M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $2,621 - $4,160 |
| Selected Fair Value | $3390.77 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $78M |
| Enterprise Value | $69M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.30 |
| Forward P/E | 11.93 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.15 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 525.15% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 3.60% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $230.29 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $186.87 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $156.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $143.57 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $339.08 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1056.14 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Churchill China PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1056.14, which is approximately 67.6% above the current market price of $630.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Churchill China PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.