As of May 27, 2025, Caffyns PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2209.67 to $16303.21 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $16303.21 | +3736.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $12903.33 | +2936.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $12467.25 | +2833.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $2209.67 | +419.9% |
Is Caffyns PLC (CFYN.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $425.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Caffyns PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| Cost of equity | 5.9% | 7.7% |
| Cost of debt | 5.8% | 15.8% |
| Tax rate | 20.6% | 26.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 2 | 2 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.0% | 10.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $12,903 | $366M | 85.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $16,303 | $459M | 71.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $5,645 | $169M | 68.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $8,593 | $249M | 47.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $5M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.4% - 5.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $49M - $101M |
| Net Debt | $15M |
| Equity Value | $34M - $86M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $1,256 - $3,163 |
| Selected Fair Value | $2209.67 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $12M |
| Enterprise Value | $26M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 4.73 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.40 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 237.30% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -3.05% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 2.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $4890.96 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $3225.83 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $2493.45 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $220.97 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $12742.60 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Caffyns PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $12742.60, which is approximately 2898.3% above the current market price of $425.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Caffyns PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.