As of May 27, 2025, Caffyns PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $425.00, this represents a potential upside of 3736.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 2936.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 3736.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.0% - 10.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $262 million in 03-2024 to $408 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 262 | 4% |
| 03-2025 | 269 | 3% |
| 03-2026 | 284 | 5% |
| 03-2027 | 300 | 6% |
| 03-2028 | 319 | 6% |
| 03-2029 | 334 | 5% |
| 03-2030 | 359 | 7% |
| 03-2031 | 366 | 2% |
| 03-2032 | 379 | 4% |
| 03-2033 | 397 | 5% |
| 03-2034 | 408 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 03-2024 to 6% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | (1) | 0% |
| 03-2025 | 2 | 1% |
| 03-2026 | 6 | 2% |
| 03-2027 | 11 | 4% |
| 03-2028 | 15 | 5% |
| 03-2029 | 20 | 6% |
| 03-2030 | 22 | 6% |
| 03-2031 | 22 | 6% |
| 03-2032 | 23 | 6% |
| 03-2033 | 24 | 6% |
| 03-2034 | 25 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 2 |
| 03-2026 | 2 |
| 03-2027 | 2 |
| 03-2028 | 2 |
| 03-2029 | 2 |
| 03-2030 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 8 |
| Days Inventory | 62 |
| Days Payables | 33 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 4 | 0 | 1 | (1) | 4 |
| 2026 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 2027 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 2028 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| 2029 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 2936.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 3736.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5644.73 | 1228.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 8592.89 | 1921.9% |
Is Caffyns PLC (CFYN.L) a buy or a sell? Caffyns PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Caffyns PLC (CFYN.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 3736.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $425.00.